May 2013
48 posts
Buzz that a special session on redistricting will...
Wayne Slater from the Dallas Morning News has tweeted that two well-placed sources say that a special session on Texas redistricting will start Tuesday, immediately after sine die.
Backgrounder: CVAP & SSVR stats for current Texas...
As Texas redistricting looks to make a return, here are updated citizen voting age population (CVAP) estimates and Spanish surname voter registration (SSVR) stats for districts under the current interim maps.
Congressional district CVAP (Plan C235)
Congressional district SSVR (Plan C235)
State house district CVAP (Plan H309)
State house district SSVR (Plan H309)
State senate district CVAP...
Congressional Black Caucus sends letter to Perry...
The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Congressional Black Caucus has sent a letter to Gov. Perry expressing concerns about a special session over redistricting and telling Perry that any acceptable map needed to contain at least for African-American ability-to-elect districts.
Currently there are three districts (CD-9 and CD-18 in Harris County and CD-30 in Dallas County) where the...
Texas is different
The title states the obvious, but sometimes a data source can confirm something you know in new and unexpected ways.
Take a piece out today by the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, which found that Republicans hold 73 of the country’s 100 geographically largest congressional districts and that Democrats hold 87 of 100 most geographically compact districts.
The piece is worth a...
The end is nigh: An update on election law bills
With the regular session of the 83rd Texas Legislature hurling toward sine die, here’s an update on where various election law bills stand. As before on the chart, the newest information is in red text.
A few high points:
What died -
Efforts to eliminate or reduce the offices eligible for straight-party voting
Online voter registration
Proposed term limits for statewide officeholders...
Q&A about Texas redistricting
Will Governor Perry call a special session on redistricting?
In the end, it’s up to him since the Texas Constitution leaves the decision about whether to call a special session to his sole discretion.
That said, the increasingly widely accepted wisdom is there will be a special on redistricting - most likely starting no more than a couple of days after sine die on Memorial Day.
At least...
The 2012 gender turnout gap: Looking at SD-10
In all but one age range, women outvoted men in Texas in 2012.
But that gap wasn’t uniform across the state. It tended to be more pronounced in urban areas.
Here’s a look comparing the gender gap in the state as a whole with the gap in the highly competitive SD-10 (where Wendy Davis battled it out with Mark Shelton in a knock down drag out fight):
[Note: Chart based on turnout...
A look at 2012 turnout among 18-29 year olds by...
The non-profit Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement is out with an analysis of 2012 turnout among 18-29 year old voters by ethnicity and gender.
The report can be found here.
According to the analysis, young African-American women easily were the stars of 2012 - not only with a higher turnout rate than any other subgroup but also with less of a fall off from...
True the Vote sues IRS
Houston-based conservative group, True the Vote, filed suit against the Internal Revenue Service this morning in federal court in Washington D.C.
The group’s court papers seek a declaration that the group qualifies for tax-exempt non-profit status under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, saying that the IRS had improperly delayed a determination decision for nearly three...
Presidential Commission on Election...
The website of the new Presidential Commission on Election Administration is now live.
Ann McGeehan, long time head of the Texas secretary of state’s election division, is among the commission’s members.
Court sets May 29 hearing on Texas redistricting
The San Antonio court entered an order this afternoon setting a hearing for May 29 at 9 a.m. to decide what to do with the Texas maps - or, more exactly, to decide how to decide what to do.
The order acknowledged that the Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby Co. would “affect the final outcome of these proceedings,” but said “the Court would like to take reasonable steps to...
So why didn't you vote? What people say
The Census Bureau’s estimate of the 2012 voter turnout took a look not only at who didn’t vote, but also asked people in the survey why they hadn’t.
Here’s what they had to say:
The biggest group of non-voters (34.6%) were those who said they were either too busy or not interested. Another 5.5% said they had experienced registration problems, and 3.3% cited...
Chart of the Day: U.S. voter turnout by income in...
ABA report on election delays
The American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Election Law is out with a report on polling place delays during the 2012 election.
Available here.
Update on election law bills
Here’s an update on where things stand, as of noon Saturday, on the election law bills in the Texas Legislature.
[Note: Chart updated to add status information of several bills as of late Saturday]
The basics of federal campaign finance law in one...
It’s a beautiful thing when something complex can be made a bit simpler through data visualization.
A higher res version and some additional notes here.
Nifty electoral map of the day (from 1880)
The first known county-level electoral map from the 1880 presidential contest:
An even more fun, zoomable version available here.
[Note: The modern red/blue distinction is inverted on this map, i.e., red = Democrats, blue = Republicans]
2012 Texas voter turnout: Men vs. Women
So how did turnout rates in Texas in 2012 vary by gender?
In general, Texas mirrored national trends, with Texas women outvoting Texas men by a little over three points.
However, since there are more women than men in Texas as elsewhere - and since women are registered at a slightly higher rate than men (69.2% vs. 64.5%) - Texas women’s higher turnout rate meant that women ended up...
A late May special session on redistricting?
That at least appears to be Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott is hinting at - though the ultimate call will be Governor Perry’s.
Christy Hoppe at the Dallas Morning News has more.
An interesting polling look at Texas Hispanic...
PAC+ and the One Texas PAC yesterday released the toplines of extensive polling they are conducting on Texas Hispanic voters in Dallas, Harris, Bexar, Tarrant, and El Paso counties.
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 1.9% and was conducted using both cellphones and landlines.
Here are some of the tidbits:
69% of Texas Hispanic voters went to primary or secondary school in Texas.
81% have...
The African-American vote: Numerators &...
The Census Bureau’s estimate last week that African-Americans outvoted Anglos in 2012 for the first time - ever - has gotten a lot of buzz.
But it also has drawn some skeptical questions.
An earlier piece on this blog suggested that the Texas data pointed to at least some measure of exaggeration by Texas African-Americans about having voted - perhaps predictable given the presence of...
Update on election law bills
Updated chart here reflecting action through Wednesday.
Term limits amendment fails in Texas House
This afternoon, the Texas House voted down a proposed constitutional amendment, SJR 13, that would have imposed a two-term limit on statewide officeholders (other than judges).
The vote was 61-80 and was not on party lines.
The amendment had cleared the Texas Senate earlier this session by a vote of 27-4.
Who votes early in Texas? You may be in for a...
Early voting is more popular than ever in Texas. But who is voting early?
If you guessed younger voters (more hip to electronic machines, etc.), you would be in for a surprise.
That’s because 2012 data from the 15 largest Texas counties shows exactly the opposite. The older you get, the more likely you are to vote early.
Now, the data shown in the chart includes mail ballots but...
Part 2: Texas' missing young voters
An earlier post took a look at the Census Bureau’s estimates of voter turnout in Texas by age - and, well, the stats weren’t pretty for 18-24 voters compared with their peers in other states.
But can the voter file tell us more?
The good news is that the age of voters - unlike ethnicity - is something that voter registrars in Texas track, so the data is considerably more certain and available....
Political disclosure bill passes 95-52
SB 346 passed the Texas House this morning by a vote of 95-52 and is headed to Governor Perry’s desk.
Background and more on controversy over the bill here.
Voter turnout by ethnicity at the county level in...
Earlier posts (here and here) looked at estimates of voter turnout in Texas by ethnicity.
But how does that breakdown at the county level?
The Census Bureau’s data doesn’t get that granular, but, using estimates from an analysis of the Texas voter file (caveats explained here), the results for big 5 counties look broadly consistent with state-level estimates - with a couple of...
Texas House gives preliminary approval to 'dark...
After some spirited debate, the Texas House today gave preliminary approval 99-46 95-50 to SB 346, Sen. Seliger’s bill to require 501(c)(4) groups and other politically active non-profits to disclose their donors once the group’s political spending crosses a $25,000 calendar-year threshold.
The bill has drawn criticism from various interest groups but has been especially controversial...
Suit over Hispanic representation filed against...
On Sunday - a day after school board elections failed to elect a Hispanic member - Hispanic groups in the Grand Prairie ISD filed suit against the district in federal court.
Contending that section 2 of the Voting Rights Act requires the district to move from at-large to single-member districts, the suit called the current system “pernicious” and said that the system was...
Comparing turnout by age among Texas voters (2008...
As they say in the law, res ipsa:
Turnout in 2013 Dallas municipal elections
Call it the year of the 7% (or the 6.96% to be exact).
Without a mayor’s race or a major ballot proposition - and several incumbents running unopposed - turnout in this year’s Dallas city council elections dipped into single digits (not that the turnout was particularly stunning before that).
Here’s how the turnout rates break down by city council district.
Texas' missing 18-24 year old voters
A lot of the focus on the Census Bureau’s estimate of 2012 voter turnout has focused on ethnicity. But there’s also a story to be told about turnout by age - and for Texas, it’s not a pretty one.
As shown, in the chart below, Texas turnout in 2012 lags every age the US turnout rate in every age group except the eligible voters over 65+, where Texas slightly outperforms the...
A look at ballot type in the 2013 Dallas city...
Although in-person early voting has overwhelmingly become the preferred way to vote in November general election, in this year’s Dallas city council races election-day voting (admitted on a Saturday) either was equally or more preferred.
Updated election bill chart
Chart of election law, campaign finance, and lobbying bills further updated to include newly scheduled hearings and floor votes as well as a few additional committee referrals.
New information shown in red.
A second look at the ethnic makeup of Texas' 2012...
An earlier post took a look at the Census Bureau’s estimates of the ethnic makeup of 2012 voters in Texas.
But, as mentioned in a follow up post, the Bureau’s estimates tend to overstate actual turnout because people don’t like saying they didn’t vote, especially with something as important as a presidential election.
So, how accurate were the Census figures for Texas?
...
Texas voter ID briefs filed at SCOTUS
Yesterday, lawyers for the Justice Department and intervenors in the Texas voter ID case filed briefs asking the Supreme Court to summarily uphold last August’s ruling by a three-judge panel in Washington refusing to preclear the law under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.
Telling the court that the legal questions presented by the state did not warrant plenary review, lawyers also said...
'Dark money' bill up for floor vote on Monday in...
SB 346, a bill by State Sen. Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo) to require non-profits spending money on political activities to disclose their donors, gets a floor vote Monday in the Texas House.
Under the bill, politically active non-profits would be required to file disclosure reports - due at the same time as campaign finance reports - once their political spending reached $25,000 in a given calendar...
Survivor Island: Election Bill Edition
With yesterday’s midnight deadline to pass House bills on second reading, and this morning’s final consent calendar, here’s an updated update on where the various election law bills in the Texas Legislature stand.
Of the bills on yesterday’s monster general calendar, only HB 966 - Rep. Murphy’s bill on voter residency - didn’t get to a floor vote.
This...
Term limits vote scheduled for May 15
The Texas House will take up a proposed constitutional amendment on May 15 that would limit statewide officeholders (other than judges) to two consecutive terms starting with terms elected in 2014.
The amendment would not prohibit additional non-consecutive terms.
The Texas Senate passed the amendment 27-4 in a vote in March, and it cleared the House state affairs committee unanimously 7-3 in...
What we don't actually know about the 2012...
It seems like a simple question. How many people voted in Texas in 2012?
Instead, yesterday’s release of the Census Bureau’s estimates of 2012 voter turnout highlights how little we know about some pretty basic aspects of Texas elections.
According to the Census Bureau’s estimates, roughly 8,643,000 people voted in Texas.
But as the Bureau itself notes, its estimates are based...
Update: Where election law bills stand
Tuesday night at 10 p.m. was the deadline for publication of the last general calendar for bills originating in the Texas House.
And this morning we got the last floor calendar for House-originated consent bills.
Bills on those calendars are scheduled for floor votes on today and Friday respectively.
If a bill (other than a local bill) wasn’t on one of those calendars, then its path to...
A look at 2012 turnout by ethnicity in Texas
The Census Bureau is out with its eagerly awaited estimate of 2012 voter turnout by ethnicity.
For 2012, the Bureau estimates that nationwide 64.1% of citizen voting age Anglos, 66.2% of African-Americans, 48% of Hispanics, and 47.3% of Asians voted in 2012.
While the impact of the nation’s growing Hispanic population on the 2012 election has gotten a lot of media play (deservedly), the...
More briefs this Thursday in the Texas voter ID...
This Thursday, the Justice Department and intervenors in the Texas voter ID case are due to file briefs at the Supreme Court explaining their position on why the full court should not hear the appeal.
The state will have an opportunity to file a reply afterwards.
Because the Texas appeal is dependent on whether section 5 survives Shelby Co., the court is not expected to make a decision on...
¿Que paso with Texas redistricting?
So what’s going on with Texas redistricting - and, more importantly, what might happen?
The Lege
The Texas Legislature is in the final stretch of its regular session (sine die on May 27), and, at this point, in the calendar, if anything gets done, it looks like it will have to start on the Senate side.
Although a couple of redistricting bills - along with some proposals for redistricting...
Heading into the stretch: Where election law bills...
As of midnight, the witching hour for House-originated bills in the Texas Legislature has come and gone.
If a House bill didn’t make it out of committee, it may not be dead but its path forward to the floor - and on to the Senate - just became a whole lot more complicated and dependent on both good will and good luck.
The latest lay of the land can be found here. New information since the...
Zedler's presidential birth certificate bill gets...
The legislative session is winding down, but one of the arguably sillier bills of the session gets a hearing Monday in the House election committee.
That’s HB 650 by State Rep. Bill Zedler (R-Arlington), which would require presidential and vice presidential candidates to give authority to the Texas secretary of state to obtain copies of their birth certificates. The bill also would give...
House elections committee agenda for May 6
The short agenda for next Monday’s meeting of the House elections committee has been posted.
It can be found here.
Monday also is, for practical purposes, the last day for the committee to vote House-originating bills out of committee in order for them to have enough time to make it to the floor for a vote and then to the Senate before sine die.
Status of election law bills: A summary
You can find a chart here with a summary of the status of all election law-related bills/resolutions heard this session by the House elections committee, House state affairs committee, and Senate state affairs committee to date.
The chart is current as of noon and does not reflect any floor action today or additional votes taken in the House elections committee.
I’ll update the chart...
April 2013
52 posts
Recap of today's House elections committee hearing...
The House elections committee took up 5 bills this morning. Here’s a recap:
HB 2306 (Thompson, S) - Bill to create a permanent mail ballot list that voters over 65 and voters with disabilities could opt into. Supported by Disability Texas, Travis County clerk’s office, Empower the Vote Texas, Texas Democratic Party. No opposing testimony but some concerns from members about...
