TEXAS REDISTRICTING

In the British Parliament, the first question during Prime Minister’s question time each week is a preset one, asking if the Prime Minister will “list his (or her) engagements for the day.”  

It’s so preset, in fact, that the initial questioner, when called upon, simply says, “Question No. 1, Mr. Speaker.”  (There’s a preset answer, too:  ”This morning, I had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others. In addition to my duties in the House, I shall have further such meetings later today.”)

In Texas redistricting, we’re starting to get our own version of “Question No. 1,” which is, “When will the primary be?”

The answer, though, is a little more complex.  But here’s a shot at it - since no other subject generates nearly as many emails.

The current April 3 primary date is still possible, if and only if there is a complete agreement on maps by February 6.  The San Antonio court has said as much.

But many feel that even an agreement by February 6 might be too late to keep to an April 3 primary date.  Here’s why:

Even if agreed maps are done February 6, the filing period will have to be reopened for a reasonable period of time - say, five days to a week. After all, a seat might become vacant if an incumbent decides to run for a different office (such as a newly created congressional district) requiring political parties to have at least some time to scramble and quickly find a replacement.  

Then the ballot draw needs to take place in each county, and printing of ballots in most counties will take 2-3 weeks.  That means ballots might not be ready to go until March 4, which sharply cuts into the required time for military mail ballots, though the court seemed to suggest that might be addressable through allowing ballots to come in for an extended period after election day.

On top of all that, county election officials have already said that the timing is tight for redrawing precinct lines, preparing and mailing new voter certificates, and getting done all of the things they need done to keep to an April 3 primary. 

In short, even if there is a deal, April 17 looks a lot more realistic logistically - simply because it creates more flex in the schedule.

If there isn’t a deal, it’s also possible that an April 17 primary still would work, as the Republican Party of Texas suggests, if new interim maps can be completed by February 20.  But the one potentially complicating factor is that the D.C. court’s ruling might come down in the middle of the process of drawing interim maps, and Judge Smith has said that it would be hard for the San Antonio court not to incorporate the ruling into interim maps.  How easy that will be remains to be seen.

If April 17 doesn’t work out, then Texans are in a scenario will few good choices, with proposed May 29 and June 26 dates both raising issues and challenges.

A split primary is another possibility but that raises its own concerns - political, financial, and mechanical.

In other words, this could well be a make or break week.