TEXAS REDISTRICTING

The D.C. court entered a minute order in the preclearance case telling parties that they should not expect a ruling for at least 30 days:

The Court directs the parties to comply fully with the page limits and briefing schedule set in this matter so that it can be timely resolved and also notifies the parties that this Court does not anticipate issuing any order within the next 30 days. 

A number of participants in the case had been expecting the court to rule by February 15 and some had felt that a ruling might even be possible next week.

The most immediate consequence of the D.C. court’s notice is that the San Antonio court almost certainly will have to begin the process of drawing new interim maps - a process that it’s expected to start as early as February 6 if the parties are unable to reach a consensual deal.

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ADDENDUM

What does this mean for the primary date?

It remains to be seen but, at first blush, it would seem to make an April primary date somewhat more likely (though probably not an April 3 date) - assuming that the court can quickly complete the task of looking at section 5 issues as a part of drawing new maps.

If the court can complete interim maps by February 20, an April 17 primary still is feasible if the new maps avoid a lot of precinct splits and some accommodation can be worked out on the time for sending out military mail ballots.  But the timing would still be very, very tight for election administrators.  Needless to say, the process would be helped along if the parties can substantially narrow the districts and issues at play.

If April 17 can’t work out, then late May is the next feasible point because of municipal elections in much of the state.